Author: Aleksey Kuzin, Head of Ecology and Technosphere Safety Division — BMZ
Risk assessment is a complex process that is often subject to subjective views and interpretations. While a standardized approach to this assessment exists, numerous factors and aspects can lead to different conclusions and results.
- Subjectivity in risk assessment. Expert risk assessment relies heavily on the experience and opinions of specialists, which can lead to differences in the perception of the criticality level of certain violations. One expert may consider a specific violation critical, while another considers it insignificant, creating room for varying assessments based on personal preferences and expert experience.
- The big picture and individual elements. Sometimes, the assessment of an individual workstation or element may reveal a safety violation or risk, but within the context of the overall system, this violation may be insignificant. When assessing risks, it is necessary to consider not only individual workstations or system elements but also their cumulative impact on the safety of the entire system.
- Allowing violations. To some extent, risk assessment allows for deviations from regulatory documentation. If a violation triggers a potential risk with extremely low probability and consequences, it can be accepted for a certain period. It is important to note here that such an approach can lead to unforeseen consequences. Although some violations may seem minor, their accumulation or cascading impact in the future could become a serious problem.
- Defining requirements based on risk assessment. Sometimes, the absence of clear regulations or requirements can serve as a reason to interpret their necessity through the prism of risk assessment. This can lead to the creation of new rules and standards based on assessment data. However, such an approach requires careful analysis and justification to avoid arbitrariness and ambiguity in establishing requirements.
- Nobody understands risk assessment. Understanding the risk assessment process is not always straightforward. It is a complex field where different viewpoints and interpretations can arise. Regulatory and supervisory bodies may also not always have a complete understanding of exactly how a risk assessment was conducted, which can lead to discrepancies and different conclusions regarding safety or risks.
Undoubtedly, risk assessment is an important tool for ensuring safety and managing HSE; however, its subjectivity and potential for interpretation highlight the importance of careful analysis, objectivity, and a comprehensive approach to assessment.