Today, as the world sheds the shackles of the coronavirus pandemic, I would like to reflect on the future image of industrial safety, taking into account those tectonic social changes that the pandemic has accelerated.
Global changes over the last two decades have reformatted the matrix of society from purely physical to semi-virtual, transformed the format of social relations and communication, and caused a rethinking of social priorities. Currently, no society or corporation, regardless of its size and place in the world, has a "happy" future without automation, digitalization, the use of big data, artificial intelligence, and the currently in-demand ESG (environmental, social, and governance), each component of which will develop and deserves separate understanding and study.
The next change that cannot be ignored concerns our modern lifestyle. According to the 2020 report by WeAreSocial (Digital 2020 Global Overview Report), the average Russian spends 7 hours and 17 minutes on the internet every day, which is more than 100 days a year or more than 40% of waking time (assuming 8 hours of sleep). This means that the digital world and our ways of interacting with it are becoming a familiar environment for existence and obtaining information, and as a result, the future of industrial safety must be considered in light of these determinants.
In addition to global megatrends, as the author sees it, there are two other main reasons for transforming the approach to industrial safety: the first is humanistic, the second is financial.
Recently, the dictates of human rights, including the right to work in conditions that meet safety and hygiene requirements, have taken a well-deserved place in society's priorities. If a society or corporation does not achieve certain indicators in safety and health for its employees or the population, real difficulties arise for further commercial activity or the existence of the current political force within the corporation or state, respectively. Society, shareholders, work collectives, trade unions, and international organizations demand constant work to protect human capital from industrial injuries, which simply cannot be ignored for the overall success of the enterprise or the well-being of society.
The second reason stems from the situation on the global financial stage, where shareholders and company owners are not ready to tolerate low profitability and demand excessive control over losses and expenses, up to their complete elimination. Industrial safety is one of those elements that can directly minimize or help completely avoid losses associated with downtime, repairs, restoration of damaged equipment, penalties due to industrial injuries, and specialist training costs. Much has been written about the value and costs of the absence of occupational safety, so it is very difficult to overestimate its contribution to the profitability of commercial enterprises.
Given the above, the industrial safety system of the future must be efficient and low-cost. I must mention that the technologies discussed below may seem excessively expensive and inaccessible. But that is today, at the turn of 2022. In the future, they will be as accessible as mobile phones and PCs are now compared to the late 90s, when they were a luxury rather than a means of communication.
It can be said with confidence that two trends will prevail in the field of industrial safety: automation and digitalization, which will determine the formats of personal and technological safety and will be aimed at minimizing the influence of the human factor — minimizing the probability of human error, as well as the possible consequences of that error.
By personal safety, we mean everything related to the person; by technological safety — everything related to equipment, technologies, and processes. But the task will be the same — controlling human error. This task will be directed at three main objects of industrial safety: (1) the person, (2) the regulatory system (processes), and (3) machines, equipment, processes.
Furthermore, it can be noted that these three components naturally fit into the framework of an integrated management system, so-called operational integrity or operational excellence management systems. Systems designed to unite the principles and processes of doing business with the values of organizational culture and social responsibility, with the task of ensuring the stability of the operating system regardless of external stressors and possible internal difficulties, or in other words, ensuring the system's invulnerability in the moment and stability over time. From this, it can be concluded that investing effort and finance in developing the level of risk management, HSE, and sustainable development can become the engine or the gold mine for a company's overall success and prosperity, since, in our opinion, without industrial safety and a quality system, it is impossible to achieve flawless efficiency and optimization of internal work processes. Now let's move directly to considering the proposed evolution of each of these elements.
The Human
The sphere of human preparation and safety will undergo the greatest change. The so-called "connected person" or "Homo Connecticus" will appear, who will be able to receive necessary data, track parameters, assess the risks of their work in real-time, and plan the course of their work. At the same time, they will not need to conduct a direct analysis of all input data. This will be done by specially developed platforms that will offer suitable solutions. The worker will receive clear step-by-step instructions for performing work or resolving emergency situations. AI algorithms will be much more effective in conducting hazard and risk assessments and in their control than a human. Any attempts to deviate from set rules and procedures will be immediately and uncompromisingly stopped by smart machines with a recommendation for unscheduled briefing on the relevant procedure or for correcting the safety attitude and culture.
I am sure that the system of training and education of workers will also change, starting with neuropsychological diagnostics of predispositions by studying the brain and the degree of development of its parts, assessing a person's professional suitability for certain professional requirements, targeted development of required abilities and psychological traits, and development of competencies in basic skills, such as the ability to conduct a behavioral audit, HSE briefing or meeting, or a work stoppage.
Digital coach programs will become widespread. One of the current problems is the preparation and training of a new generation of workers who come to the workplace with less and less life experience and, as a rule, are more prone to errors. Virtual and augmented reality will allow not only to quickly "level up" newcomers in all production processes and their execution but will also be able to recreate and "live" show the consequences of unsafe actions and violations, which will really make the worker safer and more cautious.
"Smart" protective glasses with augmented reality, high-strength protective equipment capable of withstanding significant mechanical, thermal, and corrosive effects will become commonplace items in the industrial ecosystem, as will exoskeletons.
Regarding the human, one could take a pessimistic position, imagining a self-driving car and the person's place in it. But I see a more optimistic scenario where changes create jobs that have not existed until now. Once, the position of a safety culture specialist might have caused bewilderment and a smirk; now, every progressive company has such a person. Even a self-driving car cannot function without a person in it. The task of the "autopilot" is to increase the safety of the car's movement, not to replace the person. At least in the medium term, a person will definitely be present in the process of controlling machines and equipment in the role of a controller and corrector.
Regulatory System (Processes)
The regulatory system cannot remain the same as it is now, as it places an excessive burden on enterprises to comply with its requirements: requirements of state regulators, rules of international organizations (ISO), as well as internal procedures of the organizations themselves. Such a load is not only financially burdensome but also does not allow for quick, flexible, and effective adaptation to new technological breakthroughs and their implementation. By no means does this statement imply the abolition of safety rules, especially regulatory requirements, as they often prevent catastrophic accidents. But they must transform and focus specifically on the most critical areas of safety, while basic elements should be controlled by national and industry standards (design, operation) and internal company procedures (PPE, instructions).
In the author's opinion, the greatest changes should occur in the HSE management system at the enterprise, which should not just be a multi-volume set of rules, but a very practical targeted charter, clearly understood and applied by every employee. When drafting the charter, three main criteria must be followed: minimalism, criticality, and practicality. Minimalism is necessary to provide the worker only with the set of knowledge and skills they need to perform the work, and criticality is so that the worker clearly understands the necessity of following the rules.
As for practicality, as soon as the rules acquire meaning and an understanding of their usefulness among workers, we will see the absence of "safety rule violations" in the list of causes of accidents and disasters. The work of Professor David Embrey from Human Reliability Associates Ltd from 2000, "Preventing Human Error: Developing a Consensus Led Safety Culture based on Best Practice," is very indicative and has not lost its relevance, citing survey results on the reasons for non-compliance with rules. This work demonstrates that according to the survey, 57% of workers did not know that procedures existed, and 40% did not understand their necessity. This work is available in the public domain.
The task of the internal industrial safety management system of the future is to ensure 99.9% competence and understanding by the worker of the requirements for their work and the obligation of their strict fulfillment; otherwise, the overall productivity of the entire enterprise may suffer, and as a result, lead to financial losses.
The format of the future procedural system will also be important for its effectiveness. From a paper-file format, it must transform into a digital format of social networks understandable to the new generation of workers, since by 2030, a generation that grew up with a tablet in their hands will be in the workplace.
Equipment (Fixed Assets)
As for equipment, its design and operation are already undergoing changes. The main themes in their use in the future will be automation and more automation, up to full minimization, even to the complete exclusion of human involvement in their control and operation processes. All processes will be controlled by artificial intelligence based on big data analysis.
The second area for improving the safety of machines and equipment will be mandatory state or industry certification of the ergonomics of machines and their control systems according to strictly established criteria (this certification will likely also extend to internal processes and standards). Much has been achieved in the field of machine safety through the inclusion of structural safety systems. Nevertheless, design ergonomic imperfections of "human-machine-environment" systems serve as one of the causes of human error and, as a result, industrial accidents and disasters. One of the postulates of human performance science and Seneca the Elder is that to err is human, and this should be accepted as a fact. Based on this premise, in the near future, the area of ergonomic perfection of machines will be given special attention with the aim of further reducing injuries and accidents.
In conclusion, I would like to highlight three points once again.
(1) Despite the total changes in the landscape of the existing safety system in the next 20-30 years, the person and their place in this future will be of primary importance in achieving all technological breakthroughs, regardless of how automated or digitized the workplace is, since the person writes the algorithms by which machines live, creates organizational ideologies, and ensures their achievement through machines and digital programs. Machines are designed to compensate for the psychophysiological imperfections of people and optimize processes to achieve business goals. Despite its age, Isaac Asimov's first law of robotics will apply in the future: "A robot may not injure a human being or, through inaction, allow a human being to come to harm." Additional opportunities will be created for a person to develop their competencies and apply their talents, but only on the condition of a sincere desire to learn and acquire new knowledge and skills in yet unknown fields and professions.
(2) The task of the future HSE system will be to determine a strategy for moving away from reactive management and business risks from incident to incident toward a stable system of tracking, identifying, and timely responding to an emerging hazard before it begins to manifest, and reaching the bifurcation point and taking the business system out of production equilibrium. To solve this task, private companies may have to move away from a short-term planning horizon to long-term investments, as otherwise, they risk missing important technological breakthroughs and trends of the future that will have catastrophic consequences for business due to increased shareholder requirements. At present, one such task, the solution of which will be difficult and impossible with short-term measures, is the rating of a country or company according to ESG criteria (environmental, social, and governance). ESG is a reality that increasingly determines investors' attitudes toward defining their investment goals. And given modern global trends regarding green energy and a careful and inclusive attitude toward human capital, this aspect will gain more and more significance.
(3) No single company or country in the world can achieve the image described in the article, as well as the goals of zero injuries and accidents, alone. This goal can only be achieved through collective work and the free exchange of technologies and developments, some of which have yet to be invented and created. Therefore, a large role in achieving the next level of HSE and the nation's well-being will depend on the state and its patronage of issues ensuring citizens' rights to safe working conditions, which we all count on.
I would like to express my gratitude for the discussion and exchange of opinions on this topic to my colleague and friend, Roman Khafizov, founder and leading specialist of the consulting company Operational Integrity Global Management.