Avoid Getting Blown Up by the Mental Mines of Cognitive Biases

To minimize decision-making errors, in addition to the First Barrier — the "How Not to Fall into the 'Pitfall Trap'" Methodology Checklist — I recommend checking yourself against the Second Barrier questions for the prevention of unplanned losses: Checklist No. 2 (mental "mines" associated with major cognitive biases).

To avoid "getting blown up," consider at least the following primary "mines — cognitive biases":

• People often ignore risks beyond their usual

planning horizon because short-term motivation influences them more strongly than long-term motivation;

• Experience, education, and habits hinder the ability to see and correctly assess risks;
• Risks are very often intentionally hidden by their owners, as their realization affects employee motivation;
• Managers often underestimate risks that promise high rewards;
• It is assumed that if a risk is obvious, someone is already managing it;
• Decisions are often made that reduce current risks but exacerbate future ones;
• People often look only for facts that confirm their position and vision of the situation, paying no attention to attempts to refute them;
• There is a tendency to convince oneself and others that a decision was correct, despite new data or current results;
• Assessing the importance of information based on how difficult it is to obtain;
• People often cling to mental anchors ("it hasn't happened before, so it won't happen now") or "If it hasn't killed me yet, it probably won't!";
• The misconception that if risks cannot be influenced, they do not need to be managed;
• Overweighting measures that lead to complete risk elimination while ignoring all others;
• People often believe that negative actions are always worse than negative inactions.
• "If I don't see the point, I ignore it!"

You may notice that some cognitive biases reflect different sides of similar misconceptions (e.g., points 1 and 6, or 7 and 8). I consider the mental "mines" listed in points 7 and 8 to be the most insidious. These are precisely what allowed, for example, the terrible accident in the Gulf of Mexico to occur. This was, of course, coupled with the "Pitfall Trap" mentioned in Checklist No. 1 (in another blog post) — "prioritizing business interests over safety"! Even the hypothetical size of the "Pitfall Trap" I used in Checklist No. 1 for the Amphicoelias, the largest dinosaur known to scientists, is clearly insufficient! And the architects of that accident were prominent managers from highly respected oil and drilling companies!

I am also very wary of "mine" No. 10!

Colleagues, which "mental mines" do you consider the most dangerous? Please name other mines that I haven't included in this "shortlist."